Study on the relationship between the incidence of influenza and climate indicators and the prediction of influenza incidence

In recent 2 years, the incidence of influenza showed a slight upward trend in Guangxi; therefore, some joint actions should be done to help preventing and controlling this disease. The factors analysis of affecting influenza and early prediction of influenza incidence may help policy-making so as to take effective measures to prevent and control influenza. In this study, we used the cross correlation function (CCF) to analyze the effect of climate indicators on influenza incidence, ARIMA and ARIMAX (autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous input variables) model methods to do predictive analysis of influenza incidence. The results of CCF analysis showed that climate indicators (PM2.5, PM10, SO₂, CO, NO2, O₃, average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average relative humidity, and sunshine duration) had significant effects on the incidence of influenza. People need to take good precautions in the days of severe air pollution and keep warm in cold weather to prevent influenza. We found that the ARIMAX (1,0,1)(0,0,1)₁₂ with NO₂ model has good predictive performance, which can be used to predict the influenza incidence in Guangxi, and the predicted incidence may be useful in developing early warning systems and providing important evidence for influenza control policy-making and public health intervention.

     

Contextual and organizational factors in sustainable supply chain decision making: grey relational analysis and interpretative structural modeling

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Sustainable supply chain emerges as a major business trend essential to long-term competitive advantage. Relevant corporate decisions concern a broad...     

Microfiber pollution: an ongoing major environmental issue related to the sustainable development of textile and clothing industry

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Textiles release microfibers to the environment during production, use, and at end-of-life disposal. There is a potentially large and growing risk to...     

Study on the effect of public participation on air pollution control based on China's Provincial level data

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Air pollution treatment has become the priority in environmental management for Chinese government. However, environmental problems are closely related...     

Positive or negative externalities? Exploring the spatial spillover and industrial agglomeration threshold effects of environmental regulation on haze pollution in China

Environment, Development and Sustainability - As one of the efficacious environmental governance instruments, environmental regulations usually have been adopted to control haze pollution in most...     

基于功率法的结构⁃TMD减震控制分析∗

建立了结构-TMD振动方程,推导了无控结构和带TMD受控结构基于功率表达的运动方程,分别解释并给出了各种功率表达参数的物理意义,推导了随机激励下结构耗能功率流均值的随机表达式,对比分析了基于功率法的结构-TMD优化方法与其他优化方法的优化分析结果,并对其减震控制效果进行了对比分析。结果表明,结构-TMD系统的参数可以通过耗能功率流随机分析方法所得均值进行优化,且通过功率法优化后,结构在减震效果上优于其他传统方法得到的结果,从耗能功率均值的随机分析和时程功率分析角度证明了TMD控制的有效性;TMD做功功率为负时对结构有控制效果,起吸收转移能量的作用,且功率幅值越大控制效果越好,做功功率为正时则相反。     

典型地铁车站结构大型振动台试验相似比分析

以典型地铁车站结构的大型振动台试验为基础,对试验相似比设计和试验结果的相似比精确度进行了分析。基于Buckinghamπ定理,采用一致相似率分析方法,建立以覆土质量为主要控制因素的等效密度方程。将需要施加的人工配重与非结构荷载统一考虑,分析地铁地下结构欠人工质量模型的相似比。研究不同的覆土厚度对重力效应的影响程度,计算了试验中的实际相似比,并通过试验测试结果证明其在提高计算精度上的有效性。结果表明,随着结构上覆土层厚度的增加,速度、频率、加速度的重力效应与人工质量模型的重力效应越接近,且加速度重力效应精度的提高幅度最大。通过调整试验条件下实际覆土层厚度,反演实际相似比,可以有效提高相似比设计的精确度。     

水稻秸秆生物炭对水体中DDE的吸附性能研究

通过模拟实验,初步考察了一款水稻秸秆生物炭对水中滴滴涕农药的吸附效应。吸附动力学与吸附等温线的结果表明,水稻秸秆生物炭对水中滴滴涕具有吸附速度快、吸附容量高的特点,在水体有机污染物防治中具有较好应用前景。     

我国与国外民间直升机救援的比较研究

本文通过对国外和我国民间直升机的救援现状进行分析,从救援装备、专业人才、基础设施、政策法规、运营模式等方面做了对比研究,发现我国在各方面都存在较大差距,提出了构建我国民间直升机救援体系的具体措施。     

宋代关中地区旱灾研究

通过对宋代关中平原历史文献资料的整理和分析,来了解此时关中平原干旱灾害的年度变化、等级差异、发生季节、地区间的频次分布情况。据统计,宋代关中平原从公元960年至1279年,共319年,发生旱灾95次,平均每3.3年发生一次;旱灾频次在宋代早、中、晚期变化不均,早期发生频次最多,中期最少,晚期较少,但变幅较大。旱灾主要集中于春、夏两季;空间上关中自东向西灾害频次逐渐增多。在旱灾等级分布上,可划分为小、中、大、特大四级灾害,各占40%、35%、17%、8%。旱灾频发的原因主要有降水和气候异常波动、地形位置、人口增加、政治战争等。